Statistics

My bachelor’s degree is in statistics, to me, statistics tries to handle/model/measure random events. To do that, people define random events [usually use poker card/dice as examples] and associated probability distributions, then from there expand to some key measurements such as expected value, variance, etc etc

I think I can handle the problems in homework and exams quite well, but the real lessons of statistics, if we are not doing research, is to apply it in our daily life. Over the last two years during COVID, I counter that multiple times

Example 1: Job searching

Since I graduated during a “historical moment”, the job market is cruel to everyone, especially those who just started. The market successfully turns interview/offer probability to almost zero [side note: when I asked people from the previous/next cohort, how many applications do they send? They said a lot, almost 100 and I laughed.]

But the point is statistics, if you have taken a statistics class, the problem set usually has some questions to calculate the probability of at least one event happening. I know if the probability is not exactly zero, I am likely to succeed in at least one in the end.

However, calculation and reality are different, humans are not rational all the time, especially under uncertainty. I think it is similar to investment, can we be disciplined and make rational decisions all the time?

My 1st lesson is: It is hard, it is not about knowledge or whether we know the “right answer”, it is about how can we manage our mind and emotion

My 2nd lesson is: Because of the first lesson, don’t make important decisions when we are emotional/under scarcity feeling, we will likely make a suboptimal choice. In the job market, don’t take the offer right away just because you want to escape from the shit hole; In investment, don’t tie money with emotion

Example 2: Job searching again

Now you move to the next stage, pass some interviews, have some opportunities closing to the finishing line, one opportunity is your dream job and you start to dream how great it will be! You start to calculate the expected value and it is an outlier! Great! Awesome! Excited!

My 3rd lesson is: Don’t excite too much about something before it becomes reality. No matter how high your expected value is, it is still the expected value, it doesn’t realize yet. It means the scenario that a low probability event is possible to happen. In the job market, don’t think you made it until you made it; In the lottery, sometimes the expected return of buying a lottery is higher than the cost, it doesn’t mean you should all in

Example 3: H1B visa

In case you don’t know, if international students/workers want to work in the US after OPT (Optional Practicum Training allows STEM graduates to work for 3 years and others 1 year), the main way is to hope to win the H1B lottery. Why is it called a lottery? Because it is, USCIS randomly selected a group of lucky people to submit the applications, and the probability to win H1B is dropping [around 20-30% for people with advanced degree] because of increasing applicants and visa abuse. You can do nothing, literally nothing to influence the final result other than doing a master/PhD and ask your employer to apply it for you. Yet, the result may change your life trajectory completely.

My 4th lesson is: Life is random, maybe a random developer in USCIS inputs a random seed that determines the lives of thousands. This may relieve us a little bit? Outcomes are determined by both human and randomness, we can only choose to do our best and bet another side works out

If we work hard and don’t get what we want, don’t forget randomness, it is just unlucky sometimes, don’t give up If we work hard and get what we want, don’t forget randomness, it is just lucky sometimes, don’t feel smug